Yole Group unveils its latest Status of the Semiconductor Foundry Industry report, offering a comprehensive view into a sector undergoing profound transformation. At the crossroads of technology, geopolitics, and global market dynamics, this ecosystem is being reshaped by new capacity investments, regional power shifts, and long-term national strategies.
Yole Group’s 2025 analysis highlights how the global semiconductor supply chain remains highly fragmented and increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Since the U.S. launched a semiconductor-focused trade war, mainland China has ramped up efforts to build a self-sufficient domestic ecosystem. In response, governments worldwide have launched significant subsidy programs to re-localize and fortify their semiconductor infrastructure.
Pierre CambouPrincipal Analyst, Global Semiconductors at Yole Group
“While American semiconductor companies account for 57% of global wafer demand, they control only about 10% of foundry capacity locally. Indeed, the U.S. ecosystem relies heavily on foundry players located in Taiwan, Japan, and mainland China.
In contrast, Taiwan controls 23% of global foundry capacity but accounts for only 4% of wafer demand, as highlighted by Yole Group in its 2025 foundry report. Taiwanese foundry players mainly supply the US fabless ecosystem through players like TSMC, UMC, and VIS. South Korea with players, such as Samsung, is mostly satisfying its domestic demand with an equal share of global capacity and wafer demand at 19%.
The Status of the Semiconductor Foundry Industry report reveals the worldwide capacity and its distribution as well as regional dependencies. It analyzes this dynamic landscape and how it is expected to evolve.
Despite fears of overinvestment, Yole Group forecasts that the 4.3% CAGR in foundry capacity will not result in severe overcapacity. Global utilization is expected to hover around 70% through 2030. This relatively low utilization rate will become the new normal. Without a corresponding surge in wafer production and end-market demand, the return on these capital-intensive expansions may fall short.
“The foundry market is more of a capitalistic game than a product competition,” explains Pierre Cambou from Yole Group. “Ownership, location, and utilization must now be read through national interests, economic security, and long-term technology strategy.”
While U.S.-based players still control roughly 20% of global capacity, 10% locally and 10% abroad, China’s domestic players are rapidly expanding own local capacity from 15% in 2024 to significantly more by 2030. This growing divergence between where capacity is built and who owns it points to future uncertainties in market access, supply chain transparency, and strategic leverage.
There’s a clear geographical overweight toward Asia, and that will only deepen. The global foundry market will be decided less by where fabs are located and more by who owns them.
The semiconductor foundry industry is entering a decisive decade. With geopolitical tension, regional capacity expansions, and ownership battles shaping its trajectory, the path forward will be driven much more by the demand-side dynamics than by the investment capacity, which is already overwhelming.
Yole Group’s latest forecast delivers critical perspectives on the ongoing transformation of the global semiconductor landscape. As the industry takes on an increasingly strategic role in global affairs, Yole Group’s analyses serve as a vital resource for stakeholders seeking clarity amid uncertainty, guiding informed investment, policy, and business decisions. Get more information by following Yole Group on LinkedIn and its corporate website, yolegroup.com.
